Following recent announcements regarding changes to the study permit program, Post-Graduate Work Permit (PGWP), and spousal open work permits, there has been growing interest in understanding which occupations are currently facing labor shortages in Canada. This is because the eligibility for certain group of PGWP and SOWP applicants would depend on their education in Canada and is linked to an area of labour shortage in Canada. So what are the labor shortages Canada projects between 2022 - 2031?
The Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) provides valuable insights into the imbalances between labor demand and supply, helping forecast which occupations are likely to experience shortages and which may stabilize in the coming years. In this article, we will explore the key findings of the COPS analysis for the period 2022-2031, focusing on the projected labor shortages and the potential implications for future work opportunities in Canada.
Assessing Labor Market Imbalances
COPS employs a two-step methodology to assess labor market outlooks:
Identifying Current Imbalances: The first step involves examining over 30 labor market indicators using both survey and administrative data. This analysis aims to pinpoint occupations experiencing imbalances. Key indicators include wage trends and unemployment rates. If an occupation's indicators diverge significantly from the average, it suggests a potential shortage or surplus.
Projecting Future Trends (2022-2031): In the second step, COPS estimates the projected number of job openings and job seekers. This helps determine whether current imbalances will persist and whether new imbalances are likely to emerge. Job openings arise from both employment growth and the need to replace workers due to retirements, deaths, and emigration.
Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level
Over the 2022-2031 period, COPS projects that job openings will stem from expansion demand and replacement needs. The influx of new job seekers will come from school leavers, immigrants, and those re-entering the workforce. However, the analysis suggests that recent labor market imbalances are expected to persist, with certain occupations facing structural shortages.
Projected Labor Shortages in Canada
Between 2022 and 2031, 56 occupational groups are projected to face shortage conditions:
37 of the 38 groups that experienced structural shortages between 2019 and 2021 (Step 1) will continue to see shortages. For example, Registered nurses will remain in shortage throughout the projection period.
6 of the 20 occupations that faced frictional or cyclical shortages during the same period are now projected to experience long-term structural shortages. Many of these are in trades, such as Carpenters, which will continue to face shortages.
14 occupations that previously faced shortages are expected to return to balanced conditions. For example, Food and beverage servers are projected to reach a balance between 2022 and 2031.
13 new groups are expected to move into shortage conditions, where job openings will outpace available job seekers. For example, previously balanced Plumbers are now projected to face shortages in the coming years.
Occupational shortages will be concentrated in health care, natural and applied sciences, construction, manufacturing, and transportation sectors.
Meanwhile, 8 occupational groups—primarily clerical—are projected to experience surplus conditions.
Below is a Comprehensive List of Occupations Projected to Face Shortages
Management Occupations
20010 Engineering managers
20011 Architecture and science managers
20012 Computer and information systems managers
70020 Managers in transportation
Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations
Health Occupations
Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion
Sales and Services
Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations
Natural resources, agriculture, and related production
Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities
What Next?
The insights derived from the COPS data highlight the critical need for skilled workers in Canada, especially in light of recent immigration policy changes. As Canada aims to strengthen its economy, it is crucial for potential immigrants to strategically position themselves in occupations projected to be in high demand.
As you prepare to study in Canada, keep in mind that the rules around eligibility for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) have changed, as have the requirements for bringing your spouse.
Many of these conditions are now tied to studying in programs aligned with areas experiencing labor shortages.
If you need guidance in choosing the right program or assessing your options before arriving in Canada, reach out to us for specific, tailored support.
Source: Government of Canada
This is one of the most comprehensive, insightful and well detailed post I have read on infoplace.
Thank you Florence and the entire team for making it easier to receive this information in one go!