Projected Labor Shortages in Canada (2022-2031): An Overview

Following recent announcements regarding changes to the study permit program, Post-Graduate Work Permit (PGWP), and spousal open work permits, there has been growing interest in understanding which occupations are currently facing labor shortages in Canada. This is because the eligibility for certain group of PGWP and SOWP applicants would depend on their education in Canada and is linked to an area of labour shortage in Canada. So what are the labor shortages Canada projects between 2022 - 2031?

The Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) provides valuable insights into the imbalances between labor demand and supply, helping forecast which occupations are likely to experience shortages and which may stabilize in the coming years. In this article, we will explore the key findings of the COPS analysis for the period 2022-2031, focusing on the projected labor shortages and the potential implications for future work opportunities in Canada.

Assessing Labor Market Imbalances

COPS employs a two-step methodology to assess labor market outlooks:

1. Identifying Current Imbalances: The first step involves examining over 30 labor market indicators using both survey and administrative data. This analysis aims to pinpoint occupations experiencing imbalances. Key indicators include wage trends and unemployment rates. If an occupation's indicators diverge significantly from the average, it suggests a potential shortage or surplus.

2. Projecting Future Trends (2022-2031): In the second step, COPS estimates the projected number of job openings and job seekers. This helps determine whether current imbalances will persist and whether new imbalances are likely to emerge. Job openings arise from both employment growth and the need to replace workers due to retirements, deaths, and emigration.

Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level

Over the 2022-2031 period, COPS projects that job openings will stem from expansion demand and replacement needs. The influx of new job seekers will come from school leavers, immigrants, and those re-entering the workforce. However, the analysis suggests that recent labor market imbalances are expected to persist, with certain occupations facing structural shortages.

Projected Labor Shortages in Canada

Between 2022 and 2031, 56 occupational groups are projected to face shortage conditions:

• 37 of the 38 groups that experienced structural shortages between 2019 and 2021 (Step 1) will continue to see shortages. For example, Registered nurses will remain in shortage throughout the projection period.

• 6 of the 20 occupations that faced frictional or cyclical shortages during the same period are now projected to experience long-term structural shortages. Many of these are in trades, such as Carpenters, which will continue to face shortages.

• 14 occupations that previously faced shortages are expected to return to balanced conditions. For example, Food and beverage servers are projected to reach a balance between 2022 and 2031.

• 13 new groups are expected to move into shortage conditions, where job openings will outpace available job seekers. For example, previously balanced Plumbers are now projected to face shortages in the coming years.

• Occupational shortages will be concentrated in health care, natural and applied sciences, construction, manufacturing, and transportation sectors.

• Meanwhile, 8 occupational groups—primarily clerical—are projected to experience surplus conditions.

Below is a Comprehensive List of Occupations Projected to Face Shortages

Management Occupations

20010 Engineering managers

20011 Architecture and science managers

20012 Computer and information systems managers

70020 Managers in transportation

Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations

21300 Civil engineers

21310 Electrical and electronics engineers

21321 Industrial and manufacturing engineers

21322 Metallurgical and materials engineers

21311 Computer engineers (except software engineers and designers)

21200 Architects

21201 Landscape architects

21202 Urban and land use planners

21203 Land surveyors

21210 Mathematicians, statisticians, and actuaries

21222 Information systems specialists

21223 Database analysts and data administrators

21231 Software engineers and designers

21230 Computer systems developers and programmers

72600 Air pilots, flight engineers, and flying instructors

72601 Air traffic controllers and related occupations

72602 Deck officers, water transport

72603 Engineer officers, water transport

72604 Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators

Health Occupations

31300 Nursing coordinators and supervisors

31301 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses

31102 General practitioners and family physicians

31110 Dentists

31103 Veterinarians

31111 Optometrists

31201 Chiropractors

31209 Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating

31121 Dietitians and nutritionists

31112 Audiologists and speech-language pathologists

31202 Physiotherapists

31203 Occupational therapists

31204 Kinesiologists and other professional occupations in therapy and assessment

32120 Medical laboratory technologists

33101 Medical laboratory assistants and related technical occupations

32103 Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists, and cardiopulmonary technologists

32121 Medical radiation technologists

32122 Medical sonographers

32201 Massage therapists

32209 Other practitioners of natural healing

32109 Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment

32101 Licensed practical nurses

32102 Paramedical occupations

33102 Nurse aides, orderlies, and patient service associates

33109 Other assisting occupations in support of health services

Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion

41320 Educational counsellors

31200 Psychologists

41400 Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants, and program officers

42203 Instructors of persons with disabilities

44101 Home support workers, caregivers, and related occupations

Sales and Services

63201 Butchers - retail and wholesale

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations

72014 Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers

72106 Welders and related machine operators

72200 Electricians (except industrial and power systems)

72300 Plumbers

72310 Carpenters

72400 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics

72402 Heating, refrigeration, and air conditioning mechanics

72405 Machine fitters

72406 Elevator constructors and mechanics

72403 Railway carmen/women

72404 Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors

73200 Residential and commercial installers and servicers

73300 Transport truck drivers

Natural resources, agriculture, and related production

82030 Agricultural service contractors and farm supervisors

84120 Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators

82031 Contractors and supervisors, landscaping, grounds maintenance, and horticulture services

85100 Livestock labourers

85103 Nursery and greenhouse labourers

85101 Harvesting labourers

85102 Aquaculture and marine harvest laborers

85120 Logging and forestry laborers

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities

94141 Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers, and related workers

94142 Fish and seafood plant workers

93200 Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors

94200 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors, and testers

94204 Mechanical assemblers and inspectors

95106 Labourers in food and beverage processing

95107 Labourers in fish and seafood processing

What Next?

The insights derived from the COPS data highlight the critical need for skilled workers in Canada, especially in light of recent immigration policy changes. As Canada aims to strengthen its economy, it is crucial for potential immigrants to strategically position themselves in occupations projected to be in high demand.

As you prepare to study in Canada, keep in mind that the rules around eligibility for a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) have changed, as have the requirements for bringing your spouse.

Many of these conditions are now tied to studying in programs aligned with areas experiencing labor shortages.

If you need guidance in choosing the right program or assessing your options before arriving in Canada, reach out to us for specific, tailored support.

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Source: Government of Canada