Is an Immigration Increase Coming? What Carney's Comments Mean for the Next Immigration Levels Plan
After two years of cuts, the Prime Minister has signalled a possible "controlled increase." Here is what was said, where the numbers stand today, and how to prepare before the next plan lands.
For two years, the message from Ottawa has been about bringing immigration numbers down. That message may be starting to change.
In a New York Times interview reported by The Canadian Press on September 29, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested that with Canada's immigration system "back under control," the question is now when to begin a "controlled increase." With the next Canada immigration levels plan expected within the month, that one sentence has a lot of applicants asking what comes next.
If you are planning your permanent residence or trying to stay in Canada on a temporary permit, this is a good moment to get your strategy in order. If you would rather talk it through directly, book a consultation with our licensed team.
What Carney said
The key phrase is "controlled increase." According to The Canadian Press, Carney framed the question not as whether immigration should rise, but when to begin that increase now that the system is, in his words, back under control.
It is important to be precise about what this is and is not:
It is a clear signal about the government's direction from the Prime Minister himself.
It is not an announced policy. No new targets, programs or dates have been released.
The details will come in the next three year levels plan, which, according to The Canadian Press, the government must release within the next month.
Where the numbers stand today
The current 2026 to 2028 Immigration Levels Plan, published by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 for each of the three years. For 2026, IRCC breaks that down as follows:
Category | 2026 target |
Economic | 239,800 |
Family | 84,000 |
Refugees and protected persons | 49,300 |
Humanitarian, compassionate and other | 6,900 |
Total | 380,000 |
On the temporary side, the plan is built around reductions:
| New temporary resident arrivals | Workers | Students |
2026 | 385,000 | 230,000 | 155,000 |
2027 | 370,000 | 220,000 | 150,000 |
2028 | 370,000 | 220,000 | 150,000 |
IRCC's stated goal is to bring Canada's temporary population below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. The plan also includes two one-time measures: transitioning about 115,000 protected persons already in Canada to permanent residence over two years, and accelerating up to 33,000 temporary workers with strong community roots to permanent residence in 2026 and 2027.
Why the tone may be shifting
Recent levels plans were written in response to rapid population growth after the pandemic, when temporary residents reached about 7% of the population in 2024, according to The Canadian Press. The priority became reducing new arrivals, especially temporary ones, and relieving pressure on housing and services.
Carney's comment suggests the government believes that correction has done its job. That does not mean a return to earlier growth. The word "controlled" matters. Any increase is likely to be deliberate, targeted and tied to the government's economic priorities rather than a broad reopening.
Not everyone agrees on the direction. According to The Canadian Press, an immigration council at the C.D. Howe Institute, which includes academics and former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, has recommended continued reductions over the next three years. The final plan will reflect that debate.
Why the levels plan matters to your application
The levels plan can feel like a distant, political document. In practice, it shapes almost every file IRCC processes.
The targets set how many people IRCC aims to admit in each category. That affects how many Express Entry invitations are issued over the year, how many nominations provinces can make, how quickly family sponsorships move, and how much room exists for temporary residents to transition to permanent residence.
When a category's target shrinks, competition for the remaining spots rises. When it grows, more applicants can be invited and processed. This is why two applicants with similar profiles can have very different experiences a year apart.
It is also why a strong application matters more than timing alone. Higher targets create more opportunities, but officers still assess every file against the same requirements. An incomplete or inconsistent application can be refused in a generous year just as easily as in a tight one.
What a "controlled increase" could look like
Until the plan is released, nobody outside government knows the numbers. Here is what we will be watching for when it lands:
Permanent resident targets. Whether the 380,000 figure moves up for 2027 and beyond, and which categories grow. The economic class. Whether any increase flows to Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program or targeted categories.
In-Canada transitions. Whether more space is created for temporary residents already here to become permanent residents.
Temporary resident caps. Whether reductions to new workers and students continue, pause or ease.
Priority groups. Whether priorities such as French-speaking immigration outside Quebec receive larger targets.
Our practitioner view: when targets change, the benefit usually goes first to applicants who are already prepared. Candidates with complete profiles, valid language results and documents in order are positioned to move the moment a draw or program opens. Those who wait for the announcement often lose weeks getting ready.
What this means if you are...
An Express Entry candidate
Nothing changes today. Draws continue under the current plan. If targets rise, the most likely effect is more invitations over the year, but the categories that receive them matter as much as the total.
Want your profile ready before the next plan? Speak with our licensed team.
A temporary resident in Canada
If you are on a work permit or a Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP), watch for any expansion of in-Canada pathways to permanent residence. Your immediate priority should still be keeping your status valid and your permanent residence plan on track, rather than waiting for a policy change that may or may not help your situation.
Permit expiring soon? Book a Work Permit consultation to review your options before your status runs out.
A future international student
The current plan reduces new student arrivals through 2028. A general signal about increases does not guarantee more study permits, so plan around today's rules, including stricter financial requirements, until the new plan says otherwise.
A family sponsor
Family class admissions are set at 84,000 for 2026. Any change to family targets would appear in the new plan. Strong, complete applications remain the best protection against long processing times.
A Canadian employer
Any easing of temporary worker levels would take time to reach employers. If you rely on foreign talent, plan with the current rules and stay alert for changes to worker arrival targets.
What to do now
Do not wait for the announcement to prepare. Get your documents, language tests and credentials in order now.
Check that your status in Canada is valid, and know when your permit expires.
Update your Express Entry profile with any new work experience, language results or education.
Follow the release of the next levels plan. We will break it down as soon as it is published.
Speak with a licensed team about how a change in targets could affect your specific pathway.
Got questions about how the next levels plan could affect you?
Frequently asked questions
Is Canada increasing immigration in 2027?
Not officially yet. Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested in a New York Times interview that the question is now when to begin a "controlled increase." Actual targets will be set in the next immigration levels plan, which is expected within the month, according to The Canadian Press.
When will the next immigration levels plan be released?
According to The Canadian Press, the government must release its next three year immigration levels plan within the next month. The plan sets targets for permanent residents and temporary resident arrivals for the following three years.
How many permanent residents will Canada admit in 2026?
IRCC's current levels plan sets a target of 380,000 permanent residents for 2026, including 239,800 in the economic category and 84,000 in the family category. The same total of 380,000 is planned for 2027 and 2028, subject to the next plan.
What does "controlled increase" mean?
The government has not defined it. Based on the wording, it suggests a gradual and targeted rise rather than a return to earlier high growth. The details, including which programs would grow, will only be known once the next levels plan is published.
Will it be easier to get a study permit or work permit?
Not necessarily. The current plan continues to reduce new student and worker arrivals through 2028. A signal about increasing immigration overall does not guarantee more temporary permits, so applicants should plan around today's rules until the new plan is released.
Should I wait for the new levels plan before applying?
Generally, waiting is not a strategy. If you are eligible now, preparing or applying under current rules is usually safer than delaying for a change that may not affect your pathway. A licensed representative can help you decide based on your situation.
How InfoPlace Canada can help
Permanent residence applications: full licensed representation for Express Entry, provincial nominee and in-Canada pathways.
Work permits: support for PGWP holders and temporary workers planning their next step.
Study permits: applications built around current financial and study plan requirements.
Levels plan updates: clear breakdowns of what new targets mean for your file.
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This article is general information about Canadian immigration and is not legal advice. It reflects news reporting and IRCC publications at the time of writing. Policies and targets may change once the next levels plan is released. Every file turns on its own facts, outcomes vary, and no result is guaranteed. Speak with a licensed representative about your situation.
